Megatrends to 2050: How Technology, Climate, Demographics, and Geopolitics Will Shape the World

The world has undergone significant changes in recent years, most notably the Covid-19 pandemic and, more recently, the Russia-Ukraine war. According to the latest BMI FitchSolutions report, these events have not derailed global megatrends—in fact, many have accelerated.

Rapid Technological Advancement

Technology has progressed rapidly, driven by the need for virtual interactions and e-commerce during pandemic lockdowns. Changes in supply chains became embedded due to ongoing pandemic-related disruptions.

More recently, the Russia-Ukraine war has intensified concerns about energy and food security, reinforcing the momentum behind the low-carbon energy transition and reconfiguring global supply chains.

In this latest edition of the Megatrends report, BMI adopts a foundational approach to projecting global trends through 2050, incorporating recent structural shifts and reassessing how existing megatrends are evolving and accelerating.

These trends remain grounded in today’s paradigm, projecting the future trajectory of developments currently in their early stages—such as technological progress, demographic shifts, and climate change. The 2023 edition of the report highlights six core macro-level megatrends across industrial, economic, and political spheres:

• Digital Transformation and Disruptive Technologies
• Sustainability and ESG (SESG)
• Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Low-Carbon Energy Transition
• Workforce, Skills Shortages, and Demographic Change
• Trade Trends and Globalization
• Political and Economic Volatility

Additionally, off-site construction, supported by technologies such as 3D printing, drones, and automation, is expected to become mainstream.

Emerging Revenue Streams

New revenue streams are emerging as a result of technological advancement—in tourism (digital nomads), financial services (e-payments), and education (edtech). However, these advancements bring associated risks.

Greater connectivity heightens the risk of cyberattacks, particularly in strategically vital sectors such as healthcare, infrastructure, and tech. Intellectual property disputes and technology access issues—highlighted in the Technological Megatrends section—will also alter trade ties and supply chains and may trigger geopolitical flashpoints.

Sustainability and ESG

Sustainability and ESG considerations have become more central to both corporate and governmental planning. In the 2023 report, ESG was mentioned in 80% of industry megatrend analyses, up from 70% in 2020.

While environmental aspects will drive the most change across industries, social and governance factors are gaining prominence. For instance:

• Tourism: ESG considerations will increasingly influence travel choices as socially conscious generations age and gain spending power.
• Pharmaceuticals: Companies will emphasize social sustainability to build community engagement and corporate reputation, including efforts to lower drug prices and improve access in low-income markets.
• Food and Beverage: Firms will align with consumer demand for sustainability and preempt regulatory risks by becoming more socially responsible.

Technology will continue shaping economies and geopolitical dynamics—especially in the ongoing rivalry between the U.S. and China. Since 2016, this trend has accelerated, particularly due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

All industries recognize the disruptive impact of technological advancements. Primarily, tech is seen as a positive disruptor—enhancing resource efficiency, boosting productivity, and opening new revenue streams. For example:

• Efficiency gains: Technology supports ecological goals in construction (waste reduction), energy (loss reduction and better demand-supply matching), and tech (lower electricity usage).
• Productivity increases: Smart manufacturing, IoT, and robotics will boost productivity in pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and automotive sectors.

Climate Change and the Low-Carbon Energy Transition

The most influential ESG factor for the decades ahead is expected to be climate change mitigation and adaptation, particularly the shift to low-carbon energy. This has been treated as a standalone macro-megatrend due to its broad impact.

High-emission industries such as energy, oil and gas, and automotive will experience the most significant transformation, but nearly every industry will be affected. For example:

• Construction and infrastructure: Opportunities will arise to develop climate-resilient and energy-efficient infrastructure, while existing assets will require retrofitting.
• Agrobusiness: Climate change, combined with population growth, poses a serious threat to global and regional food security.

To meet sustainability targets, industries will need to invest in greener materials and technologies. This includes the rise of:

• Green building materials
• Clean energy (e.g., hydrogen)
• Tech to improve energy efficiency and reduce waste

However, all of this depends on increased access to critical minerals, which will enable both green and digital transitions.

Workforce, Skills Shortages, and Demographics

Often overshadowed by headline-grabbing issues like tech and ESG, demographic and labor force trends are another key megatrend. In 2023, over 50% of industries referenced workforce and demographic concerns—up from just 20% in 2020.

While labor shortages stemming from the pandemic brought this issue into focus, underlying trends such as aging populations and a lack of skilled labor have long been in play and are set to grow in relevance.

For some sectors, this presents opportunities to develop new products and tap new revenue streams. For example:

• Tourism will cater more to older travelers.
• Pharmaceuticals and healthcare will face increased demand from aging populations.

For others, the impact will be mixed:

• Food and beverage firms will develop products for older consumers but struggle with labor shortages in this hands-on industry.
• Construction, infrastructure, and agrobusiness will face similar challenges due to their reliance on manual and migrant labor—especially as immigration restrictions may tighten.

As a result, companies are expected to invest heavily in automation and AI to address workforce shortfalls.

Generational shifts in values and increased social awareness will also affect workforce supply. Fewer people may pursue careers in oil, gas, or technology if those industries are perceived as misaligned with evolving social priorities.

Trade and Globalization

Globalization has been a topic of debate since BMI’s first Megatrends report in 2016. Since then, major disruptions—from U.S.-China trade tensions to Covid-era supply chain breakdowns and the Russia-Ukraine war—have reshaped the global trade landscape.

These shocks have prompted companies and governments to build more resilient supply chains. As a result, we expect lasting changes in global trade patterns through 2050.

Importantly, this does not signal the end of globalization, but rather a shift toward strategic trade partnerships, guided by political, security, and geographic considerations.

Future trade models will emphasize “just-in-case” strategies and push for regionalization and localization. Key industries likely to see reshaped supply chains include:

• Pharmaceuticals
• Machinery
• Metals and mining
• Oil and gas
• Power and utilities

Trade trends will also shape tourism and technology. Both sectors are highly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. For example, the tourism industry may increasingly target “friendly” source markets to avoid political disruption. The tech sector, strategically vital, is especially exposed to supply chain shifts and market access risks due to geopolitical rivalries.

Political and Economic Volatility

Political and economic volatility is front of mind for companies in today’s environment, and it is likely to remain a key risk through 2050.

Many of the megatrends outlined—especially those involving technology, climate, demographics, and trade—carry the potential to destabilize economies and political systems as they adapt to a changing global landscape.

A more multipolar world order is emerging, and rising powers in emerging markets are likely to seek more influence, raising the risk of geopolitical conflict.

Domestically, issues like urbanization, demographic shifts, and climate-related disruptions may increase political tensions and internal instability. Governments will be challenged to adapt their economic models accordingly.

• Developed economies will need to raise productivity as working-age populations shrink, while managing the potential social backlash.
• Oil-dependent economies must diversify amid the green transition.
• Emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, may benefit from realigning supply chains and becoming key source markets.