In 2023, pork production in the EU decreased by 6.6%. Except for Bulgaria, all other EU countries experienced declines, according to the latest specific analysis published by DGAgri.

The largest decreases were recorded in Denmark (-19.9%, -321,000 t), Germany (-6.8%, -307,000 t), the Netherlands (-13%, -220,000 t), and Spain (-4.2%, -214,000 t). Lower feed prices led to slightly higher carcass weights (+0.7%).

On the other hand, the December 2023 livestock survey showed an increase of 170,000 in the number of breeding sows. This could indicate a beginning of recovery after three years of significant declines.

However, the growing number of sows hides huge differences between EU countries. Additionally, the number of piglets has also increased. Conversely, the current stock of fattening pigs is below last year's figure, which is expected to have a negative impact only in H1 2024.

In 2024, it is assumed that the ASF (African Swine Fever) situation will not change dramatically. Instead, feed prices could rise again, depending on the outcome of the next harvest, among other factors. Overall, pork production in the EU in 2024 is expected to decrease marginally by 0.4%.

At the same time, EU demand remains firm. With reduced supply and high prices, per capita consumption in the EU is expected to remain relatively stable in 2024.

Less competitive prices for EU pork are affecting EU export performance. In 2023, EU exports decreased by -24.6% or nearly 1 million tonnes. Concurrently, pork production in China is recovering, leading to reduced imports from the EU.

Moreover, the EU has lost exports to both high-value markets (USA, Japan, Australia) and low-value markets (Philippines and Angola) due to strong price competition from the USA and Brazil. Only the UK market saw a slight positive evolution (+1.4%).

The Chinese pork market currently suffers from oversupply in the short term. Furthermore, if EU prices remain high, EU exports could further decline by 4% in 2024.

EU pork imports from the UK decreased by 25% in 2023, primarily due to a decline in UK production.

The UK represents more than three-quarters of EU imports, and no short-term replacement from other sources is expected. EU pork imports from the UK could remain low in 2024 and may further decrease by 2%.(photo: Dreamstime)