Rabobank Forecasts Sustainable Growth for the Global Dairy Industry in 2025

Rabobank predicts that 2025 will be a year of sustainable growth for the global dairy industry, driven by improved weather conditions, stabilized profit margins, and increased dairy imports from China. These factors are expected to create favorable conditions for producers worldwide.

The sector is set for recovery, with supply chain resilience and market adjustments playing an essential role in shaping the industry's trajectory.

Milk Production on the Rise in Oceania and the EU

In the second half of 2024, global milk supply volumes from major exporting regions increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with forecasts indicating this trend will continue into 2025.

The European Union and the United Kingdom recorded a 0.3% increase in milk deliveries in 2024. Experts project a further 0.5% increase in 2025, contingent on the effective management of disease outbreaks and continued vaccination efforts against bluetongue disease.

Milk Production Slows in China

In stark contrast, China’s dairy sector faces strong headwinds. Milk production in China declined by 0.5% in 2024, attributed to low prices, extreme heat, and producers exiting the industry.

The outlook for 2025 appears even more pessimistic, with an estimated 1.5% decrease in production. However, Rabobank anticipates a 2% increase in China’s dairy imports, as consumer demand shows signs of partial recovery.

Pricing and Market Dynamics

Wholesale milk prices began to decline in Q4 2024, but remain high relative to historical averages.

In 2025, consumer demand is expected to improve, supported by lower dairy product prices, which could stimulate increased sales in key markets.

Optimistic Outlook for 2025

Rabobank’s forecast signals optimism for the year ahead. With improved climate conditions, better profitability, and rising demand—particularly from China—the global dairy sector is positioned for sustainable expansion.