The latest report published by the European Meat Observatory indicates that pork production in the EU is expected to further decline by 1.6% in 2023, primarily due to structural adjustments in the pork sector.

The current price environment could attract more imports from the United Kingdom and South America (+5%), while EU exports are expected to remain stable, as global supply is also low and demand remains firm.

A smaller breeding stock and African swine fever (ASF) continue to push pork production in the EU down by 5% in 2023, despite declining feed prices. The decline in exports to China is projected to further slow down EU exports by 3% in 2023.

As production costs decrease from very high levels, poultry production in the EU may benefit from a modest recovery of 1.1% in 2023, despite the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Additionally, high poultry prices in the EU make EU exports more challenging.

The suspension of tariffs on products from Ukraine favors poultry imports and increases domestic availability.