China will import its first Russian pork in the middle of 2024, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko, as quoted by PigProgress.

Legal foundations are being sought

Technical work is needed to lay the legal foundations for export, stated the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. The Ministry estimated that this process will take between 3 and 12 months.

On the Russian side, the green light is needed for veterinary certificates. Russian pork producers must go through registration in the Chinese veterinary system CIFER.

China lifted the nearly 15-year ban on pork imports from Russia in October 2023, following a comprehensive analysis of the situation surrounding African swine fever (ASF) in the country and extensive high-level political negotiations.

RusAgro emerges as the biggest winner

RusAgro, a major Russian pork producer, will benefit the most from the Chinese decision, according to Ricom-Trust, a financial consulting company in Moscow. The future development potential of the Russian pork industry depends entirely on exports.

Domestic consumption is already exceptionally high, while the impetus for import substitution is exhausted, according to analysts.

According to Ricom-Trust, "Further investments [in the Russian pork industry] are primarily made with the expectation of future export growth. In recent years, several large companies have built pig farms with the expectation of exporting pork to Asian countries, including China."

This year, Russia's pork production is expected to increase by approximately 5% or 200,000 tons. This growth rate is projected to be maintained in 2024, as reported by analysts. In previous years, RusAgro considered plans to build pig farms near the border with China or even within China.

Further expansion of pig farms is likely

Russia's pork production is increasing as farms, allocated favorable loans under a government program in 2018, are gradually becoming commercially operational, according to the National Union of Pork Producers of Russia (RUPP).

This process is likely to last until 2025, as some farms have not yet reached maximum production capacity.

Next year, growth could even accelerate to 7% compared to the current year. RUPP added that this could happen even if subsidized low-interest loans are no longer available to Russian pig farmers.

Meanwhile, there are signs that China's decision to lift the ban on Russian pork could attract new investments in Russia's pork industry. Goldman Group, a prominent Siberian pork company, recently announced the expansion of its assets in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Siberia, aiming to establish exports to the Chinese market.

The works are scheduled to be completed by January 2024, said the company, without providing further details.