The European Commission's latest analysis of the European and international meat market highlights a negative outlook for European Union countries.

Overview of the Market

Beef Production: Beef production in the EU is expected to continue declining in 2024, by -2.3%, mainly due to ongoing structural adjustments in the beef and milk sector. Imports into the EU could increase, mainly due to rising imports from Brazil. Despite high domestic prices, EU exports continue to perform very well, also due to the reopening of some markets, leading to a decrease in EU beef consumption per capita by -2.8%. A slightly larger sow herd (+1.6%) could indicate initial signs of sector recovery.

Pork Production: However, EU pork production could slightly decrease by -0.4% in 2024. Lower demand from China and other destinations could slow down EU exports by 4% in 2024, making more products available for the domestic market. EU poultry production could benefit from a 1.7% increase in 2024 due to fairly good market prospects, both on the demand and supply sides.

Sheep and Goat: Historically low sheep stocks in the EU push down slaughterings by -4.9% in 2024. Sustained demand and high domestic prices keep imports high (+2.5% in 2024), while meat exports continue to decline by 2% due to lack of competitiveness.

Cattle

Bovine: Relatively high domestic prices negatively impact EU competitiveness. However, EU beef exports increased even in 2023. The decline in live animal exports to certain Mediterranean destinations was offset by the reopening of Turkish and Moroccan markets, leading to a 7.4% increase in 2023. As the monthly number of animals shipped to Turkey was lower in S2 2023 than in S1 2023 and given the current relative shortage of live animals in the EU market, a small decline in exports (-1%) is expected in 2024.

Pork

Pig: Less competitive pork prices in the EU affect EU export performance. In 2023, EU exports decreased by -24.6% or nearly 1 million tonnes. Meanwhile, pork production in China is rebounding, reducing their imports. Additionally, the EU lost exports to both high-value markets (US, Japan, Australia) and low-value ones (Philippines and Angola) due to strong price competition from the US and Brazil. Only the UK pork market recorded a slight positive evolution (+1.4%).

Poultry

Poultry Meat: In 2023, total imports into the EU increased by 5.3% (+42,000 t). Imports from Ukraine increased by 45% (+64,000 t) and from Thailand by 13% (+17,000 t). Deliveries from Brazil had a strong start in 2023 but slowed down in S2 2023. Annually, they decreased by 4.4%. Assuming the UK market situation remains similar to 2023, no change in import levels is expected.

Ovine and Caprine

Sheep and Goat: While EU sheep meat exports to the UK remained relatively stable in 2023, deliveries to the Middle East, e.g., Oman and Qatar, declined. These developments led to an overall export decrease of nearly 13% in 2023. This is mainly due to relatively low availability and high prices in the EU, making the EU less competitive, and more production remains in the domestic market. Since this situation is not expected to change in the short term, EU meat exports are kept at the current low level and are expected to decrease further by 2%.

Live Animal: EU live animal exports increased by 5% in 2023, despite high domestic prices. The revival of exports to Libya and Morocco largely offset declines to Jordan and Israel. Live animal exports will slightly increase by 2% in 2024, approaching pre-COVID levels, if Libyan and Moroccan demand remains firm.

Imports: EU sheep meat imports increased by 2.2% in 2023, coming from the UK and New Zealand. If the global tightening of supply and Asian demand remains as last year, EU imports could increase by another 2.5%, due to attractive prices.

Uncertainties in the Red Sea, the Black Sea, and the Middle East could continue to add concerns for sheep trade flows.