The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released an update on forecasts for pork production and exports in the U.S. and globally.

Production growth in the USA, Brazil, and Vietnam

In the "Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade" report, USDA analysts state that global pork production in 2024 is expected to "remain virtually unchanged, at 115.5 million tons." The decline in production in the EU and China will be offset by slightly higher production in Brazil, Vietnam, and the USA.

Specifically, it is estimated that U.S. production will be 2% higher in 2024 compared to 2023. This is due to a strong increase in pigs produced per litter. Lower feed costs also play a role, making pork prices more competitive compared to other meats.

U.S. pork exports are expected to increase by 3% in 2024 "due to strong demand from Canada, the Philippines, and South Korea, as well as gaining market share from the EU in China and Australia."

Looking at the total global pork exports, shipments are estimated to increase by 2% to 10.4 million tons in 2024, as Brazil's exports continue to gain market share from pork products from the EU and the USA, especially in Japan and Mexico.

EU Analysis

USDA predicts that in 2024, pork exports from the EU are "expected to decrease by 25% compared to 2019.

These represent 15% of production, down from 19% in 2019. In addition to increasingly stringent regulations, pig producers in the EU continue to face challenges in controlling the impact of African swine fever.

USDA analysts add that "EU regulations on veterinary medicines, as well as future legislation on animal welfare, have created uncertainty for producers, discouraged investments, and increased production costs."

Brazil and Vietnam

USDA expects pork production in Brazil to increase by 5% in 2024 as pork prices reflect growth in several existing export markets of Brazil: Mexico, Singapore, and the Dominican Republic.

Costs of inputs in Brazil are also expected to decrease, leading to improved producer margins.

In Vietnam, pork production is likely to increase by 5% due to growing domestic demand. This is the result of economic recovery following the pandemic. Efficiency gains are also expected "from investments and industry consolidation."

China remains steady

Pork production in China is expected to decrease by 1%, with weak domestic demand for most of 2023.

This may be due to China's recent economic downturn, making pork a less affordable expense for some families.

However, the Reuters news agency reported on October 18 that "China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the third quarter. Consumption and industrial activity also surprised in September, suggesting that recent policy measures are contributing to a temporary rebound."