The trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur has a potentially asymmetric impact on Member States, and for Romania the relevant dimension is predominantly defensive. The current structure of agri-food production and the country’s trade positioning point to clearer risks than direct benefits in the short and medium term.

According to the latest available Eurostat data, Romania is a net exporter of live animals but a net importer of meat and meat products. The trade deficit in this segment exceeds EUR 1 billion, generated mainly by intra-EU trade flows. Romanian meat exports to third-country markets account for less than 5% of total agri-food exports, reflecting a limited capacity to access distant markets, including South America.

Conversely, the EU–Mercosur agreement includes tariff-rate quotas for sensitive products such as beef, poultry meat, and sugar, with reduced or eliminated duties within the quota limits, according to European Commission documents. Even within this framework, Mercosur countries enjoy structural cost advantages. FAO data show that Brazil and Argentina consistently rank among the world’s leading beef producers and exporters, benefiting from production costs significantly lower than the EU average, driven by access to feed, favorable climate conditions, and economies of scale.

For Romania, the main risk is not direct export competition but pressure on the domestic market. Imports at lower prices may lead to downward price adjustments and margin compression, particularly for commercial farms and small and medium-sized processing units. Differences in standards related to environmental protection, pesticide use, and animal welfare further accentuate this competitive asymmetry.

The Mercosur agreement thus becomes, for Romania, an issue of implementation and control rather than a commercial opportunity. Without robust traceability mechanisms, strengthened sanitary-veterinary controls, and the effective use of safeguard clauses, costs risk being internalized at national level, while the benefits materialize predominantly externally.

(Photo: Freepik)