Global milk production is estimated to reach nearly 979 million tons in 2024, an increase of 1.4% compared to 2023.

A significant portion of this expansion will come from Asia—led by India, China, and Pakistan—driven mainly by the increase in the number of dairy cows and the growing contributions of more efficient large-scale dairy farms with higher milk yields.

The forecasted growth in global milk production assumes a relatively moderate worldwide impact of the emerging La Niña weather phenomenon, stable farm milk prices, and relatively lower animal feed costs resulting from reduced grain prices, all of which should lead to improved milk profit margins.

Macroeconomic challenges, including currency fluctuations and anticipated low economic growth in some milk-producing regions, are likely to constrain consumer demand for dairy products and, ultimately, milk production growth.

Global dairy trade is projected to reach 85.3 million tons in 2024, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year. Notable increases are expected in Mexico, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Algeria, and Japan, supported by demand recoveries partly induced by relatively lower international dairy product prices and increased demand from the food service sector.

Dairy imports from China are expected to decline slightly, mainly reflecting increased domestic supply. Australia, the United States, New Zealand, Argentina, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will likely provide much of the anticipated growth in dairy imports, reflecting competitive prices and ample export availability.

International dairy prices, measured by the FAO Index, have risen by 6.2% from January to May this year, pushing the index's value 3.5% above its value from a year ago.

Over the five months, butter and cheese prices have increased significantly, reflecting steady global import demand, coupled with improved retail and food service sales and somewhat tighter stocks in top producing regions, especially in the European Union.

Meanwhile, whole milk powder prices have risen moderately as purchases by major importers in the Near East and North Africa regions remained robust, despite a slowdown in import pace from China.

In contrast, global skim milk powder prices have declined due to sluggish global import demand. (Photo: Dreamstime)