The dairy industry in Romania is experiencing severe pressure on raw material prices, within a European context where supply has increased and quotations have adjusted. According to market analyses, the farm-gate price of milk has in some cases dropped to around 1.5 lei/liter, a level at which many farms operate below their actual production costs.

Data from the European Commission confirms the market pressure. In January 2026, the average price of raw milk in the European Union fell to approximately 45.22 euro cents/kg, significantly below the level of the previous year. For February 2026, estimates indicated a further decline. At the same time, cow’s milk collection in the EU increased by approximately 5% compared to the same period of the previous year, indicating additional pressure from the supply side.

At the European level, milk production remains high. According to Eurostat, Member States produced over 161 million tonnes of raw milk in 2024, most of which was directed towards processing. A significant proportion is used for value-added products, particularly cheese and butter, which provides additional stability in integrated markets.

In Romania, the main vulnerability remains the fragmentation of the production chain. Farms that supply raw milk without integration into processing or without stable contracts are the most exposed to market volatility. During periods of European overproduction, milk becomes a substitutable commodity, and the price is influenced by imports and retail dynamics.

The current context indicates the need for structural measures. Long-term contracts between farmers and processors, investments in processing capacities, and the consolidation of cooperatives can reduce exposure to price fluctuations. In the absence of these mechanisms, market adjustments will continue to directly affect farmers’ incomes, even under conditions of stable production at the European level.

(Photo: AI GENERATED)