According to a Rabobank analysis, global pork consumption is poised for growth, and in its recent report on global pork trade, Rabobank notes that while competition among major pork exporters has intensified, the competitive landscape will continue to evolve.

Consumption growth supports trade

According to the Rabobank report, the advantage is likely to be in the hands of low-cost producers, such as Brazil and the USA. Europe's position, meanwhile, is expected to weaken, primarily due to increasing market demands and regulatory requirements for animal welfare and sustainability.

Eva Gocsik, Senior Analyst (Animal Proteins) at Rabobank, noted that global pork consumption is expected to grow at a projected compound annual growth rate of 0.7% from 2022 to 2030. Next year, in 2024, this is anticipated due to inflation reduction.

Pressures and ongoing recovery from African Swine Fever in Southeast Asia and Asia. In the long term, population growth and economic development will further drive consumption growth, offsetting the continued decline in consumption in Europe.

Brazil's production cost advantage

Exchange rates, as well as transportation costs, labor force, and pork production are major factors affecting the competitiveness of global pork exporters.

Gocsik notes that Brazil is becoming a remarkable player and, in 2022, captured 24% of China's pork imports, cementing its position as China's second-largest supplier. Brazil continues to maintain its production cost advantage over European exporters.

North America remains a key player

The USA and Canada continue to maintain their status as low-cost pork exporters due to affordable feed and continuous access to key markets.

The value of pork from the USA and Canada could increase due to consolidation and further sustainability initiatives. However, pork exports from the USA and Canada and pork varieties will remain essential for global pork trade.

Rising production costs in the EU

In the EU, rising sustainability and animal welfare standards require investments from producers.

And while European pork exports remain significant, they are expected to decline as production costs continue to rise.

Pressure from the disease looms larger

"African Swine Fever continues to directly affect importing countries in Asia and European exporters indirectly through trade restrictions, reshaping global trade patterns," said Gocsik.

Meanwhile, some regions are testing vaccines and genetic editing, which could provide a competitive advantage to some producers.