Global Meat Production to Grow Slightly in 2025, FAO Reports

Global meat production is expected to increase by 0.6% in 2025 compared to the previous year, reaching 380 million tonnes (carcass weight equivalent), according to the latest biannual report published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). However, the projected growth marks a slower pace than in recent years.

🔹 Poultry Drives Growth, While Beef Production Declines

The anticipated growth is primarily driven by an increase in poultry production, while pork and sheep meat outputs are expected to record only marginal increases. In contrast, global beef production is projected to decline, partially offsetting the overall growth.

Poultry meat production is forecast to expand steadily, supported by robust consumer demand, given its relative affordability—especially relevant as household purchasing power remains constrained.

Despite ongoing outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in key production regions and limited availability of breeding stock, favorable operating margins are expected to support continued growth in poultry supply.

🔹 Pork and Sheep Meat: Marginal Gains

Global pork production is projected to rise slightly, reflecting modest herd expansions. In China, the world’s largest pork producer (accounting for nearly half of global output), continued low producer margins are expected to restrict production growth, maintaining largely stable output levels.

Similarly, sheep meat production is forecast to see marginal growth, as declining herds in Oceania are counterbalanced by gains in other regions.

🔹 Beef Production Set to Contract

Beef output is anticipated to decline globally in 2025, driven by reduced slaughter rates due to shrinking cattle herds and continued efforts to rebuild stocks—particularly in Brazil and the United States—following years of high culling levels.

🌐 Global Meat Trade: Slower Growth Ahead

World meat trade is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, reaching 43 million tonnes, a significant slowdown from the estimated 4.7% increase in 2024.

While a modest increase in trade is still anticipated—supported by tight supply and firm import demand—this growth will likely be constrained by:

• Geopolitical tensions
• New trade restrictions
• The continued spread of animal diseases, which may disrupt trade flows

🔹 Poultry Leads, Beef Trade Rises, Pork and Sheep Stay Stable

Trade expansion is expected to be driven largely by higher poultry shipments, as its affordability makes it more competitive compared to other meats.

Beef trade is also projected to rise, bolstered by increased import demand—especially from the United States, amid domestic supply constraints.

In contrast, global trade in pork and sheep meat is expected to remain stable, reflecting a generally balanced market environment.

📈 Meat Prices Continue Upward Trend

International meat prices, tracked by the FAO Meat Price Index (FMPI), have continued to rise in the first five months of 2025.

This upward trend is attributed to:

• Reduced export availability in several major producing countries
• Sustained global demand
• Heightened market uncertainty, fueled by ongoing animal disease outbreaks and geopolitical trade tensions
• Stockpiling by importing countries, anticipating potential trade disruptions

These combined factors have added additional upward pressure on global meat prices.