637
High economic uncertainty, coupled with declining volumes, means that the outlook for the global consumer products industry is "stable," despite the projected growth in profit, according to a new report by Moody's Investors Service.
The average profit growth in the consumer products sector is likely to reach around 4% to 7% over the next 12 to 18 months, Moody's said, primarily driven by price increases.
The agency added that it would typically change the outlook to "positive" if profit growth exceeded 4%. However, the high degree of uncertainty continues to weigh on economic forecasts, "increasing the risk to our profit expectations and overall industry outlook," Moody's said.
As noted by Moody's, high interest rates increase the cost of debt for consumers, many of whom are trading down – even higher-income consumers are becoming increasingly selective in how they spend their money.
Profit growth in the beverage sector is likely to continue, Moody's added, driven by price increases, ongoing volume recovery, the reopening of the Chinese market, and a rebound in travel retail.
Operational profit growth in the beverage sector is expected to be around 5% to 8% over the next 12-18 months.
Meanwhile, in packaged foods, operational margins appear to be strengthening, Moody's said, driven by price increases.
"The higher prices seen in recent quarters now cover higher costs," it stated, noting that packaged food volumes have declined "less than expected" considering the price increases, but this could change in an economic downturn.
Operational profit growth of 4% to 7% is anticipated in packaged foods over the 12-18 month period.
Elsewhere, packaged goods companies continue to benefit from higher prices, but consumers are trading down in some segments, Moody's added.