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The number of farms is expected to decrease by half by the end of this century, while the average size of existing farms doubles, according to a new study by the University of Colorado Boulder (CU Boulder), as cited by European Supermarket Magazine.
In Africa and Asia, rural and farm-dependent communities will also experience a decline in the number of operating farms.
Zia Mehrabi, an assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder, said, "We are seeing a turning point from the creation of large-scale farms to large-scale consolidation globally, and this is the future trajectory that humanity is currently on. Farm size and the number of farms that exist are associated with key environmental and social outcomes."
The study tracks the number and size of farms year by year from the 1960s and includes projections until 2100.
Mehrabi used data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization on agricultural land area, per capita GDP, and rural population size from over 180 countries to reconstruct the evolution of the number of farms from 1969-2013 and then project these figures until 2100.
It is estimated that the number of farms will decrease to 272 million by 2100, from 616 million in 2020, as more people migrate to urban areas.
A decline in the number of farms and an increase in farm size have been happening in the United States and Western Europe for decades, according to the study.